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Disposition effect

Psychologieab 13 J.
Investors sell winning shares too early (“lock in the profit!”) and hold losing shares too long (“it'll recover!”). One of the most expensive behavioural mistakes in investing.

The disposition effect describes the tendency of investors to realise gains too early and sit out losses for too long.

How it works:

Share rises (+30%): "Sell quickly before the gain disappears!" → you sell with a 30% gain. The share then rises by another 200%.

Share falls (−40%): "It'll surely recover. If I sell now, the loss becomes real." → you hold. The share falls to −80%.

Why does this happen?

• Loss aversion: losses hurt twice as much as gains please
• Sunk cost fallacy: "I've already invested so much, I can't sell now"
• Overconfidence: "I know better than the market"

What the disposition effect costs you:

Studies show: investors subject to the disposition effect achieve on average 3–7% less return per year than the market.

Remedy:

✅ ETF savings plan (no individual shares = no disposition effect)
✅ Fixed rules: "I never sell before 10 years"
✅ Don't check your portfolio every day (what you don't see can't trigger you emotionally)

Did you know? Terrance Odean (UC Berkeley) analysed 10,000 brokerage accounts and found that the shares investors sold (winners) subsequently rose more on average than the shares they kept (losers). The disposition effect costs real money.
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