Gold vs. ETFs

Two of the most popular asset classes in an honest long-term comparison.

Performance comparison (nominal, per year):

• 50 years: shares (MSCI World) ~8.4%, gold ~6%
• 30 years: shares ~8%, gold ~6.5%
• 20 years: shares ~8%, gold ~9% (gold was strong in the 2000s!)
• 10 years: shares ~10%, gold ~8%

REAL (after inflation):

• Shares: ~5–6% real per year
• Gold: ~3–4% real per year
• Surprisingly: the difference is SMALLER than you might think!

The tax game changer (Germany):

• Gold (physical, Xetra-Gold): after a 1-year holding period = COMPLETELY TAX-FREE
• Equity ETF: 26.375% flat-rate withholding tax (with 30% partial exemption: ~18.5%)
• With a €100,000 gain: gold tax-free vs. ETF ~€18,500 in taxes

Characteristics compared:

Gold:

• Crisis protection ("safe haven")
• Long-term inflation protection
• No ongoing income (no dividends, no interest)
• High volatility (can also fall for years)

Equity ETF:

• Ongoing income (dividends)
• Participation in real value creation
• Better long-term return
• Higher short-term risk (crashes)

Optimal strategy:

• 90% equity ETF as the return driver
• 5–10% gold as a stabiliser (lowers portfolio volatility)
• Form of gold: Xetra-Gold (DE000A0S9GB0) or physical coins/bars